US election results: When can we expect the final result? | 2024 US Election News

The US is just days away from its presidential election, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump focusing their campaigns on crucial swing states where every vote counts.

As election day approaches, we take a closer look at what we can expect on the day itself and how the results may develop.

When is the US election?

The election will be held on Tuesday 5 November 2024.

In most states, polling stations will open between 7:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m. local time. Given the span of multiple time zones in the US, it will be between 11:00 GMT and 16:00 GMT.

When does the voting end?

Poll closing times vary from state to state and sometimes county to county.

However, most polling stations will close between 18:00 Eastern Time and midnight Eastern Time (22:00-04:00 GMT).

When will the US vote count begin and when can we expect the results?

Just hours after the first polling stations close at 18:00 Eastern Time (22:00 GMT), the results are expected to start coming in. However, some states will count votes faster than others. With polls closing several hours later in states to the west, their first results won’t start coming in until later — when some eastern states may have already been called for Harris or Trump.

In a close race between them, the counting could continue well past election night, and we may not know the winner for several days.

“It’s really close,” says Raymond J. La Raja, a professor of political science at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s National Polls tracker, Harris maintains a narrow national lead of about 1.2 points as of Friday.

However, La Raja explained that the polls may not accurately capture some voter groups, which could lead to surprising results for both candidates. If the polls are wrong and the race isn’t as close as expected, “we’ll know pretty quickly,” he added.

“But my guess is we won’t know for the first few days.

“It’s so close (that a candidate might) not concede … so I’d get the coffee and tea out because it’s going to be a long night that could be over in a few days.”

What do we know about the swing modes?

Seven swing states are expected to be key to deciding the outcome of the presidential election.

These key states include Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6), along with a total of 93 Electoral College votes.

A candidate must receive at least 270 out of 538 electoral votes to win the election.

Polls in these states will close between 19:00 and 22:00 Eastern Time (23:00 to 02:00 GMT).

Some of them first results will likely come from Georgiawhere state law requires all early votes to be counted and reported by 1 p.m. 20:00 Eastern Time (midnight GMT) on election night.

North Carolina follows. In this mode, votes will be counted and reported throughout the evening, with full results expected by midnight (04:00 GMT).

In 2020, Nevada was slow and the state was not convened until five days after election day. Since then, the rules have changed, and the process is expected to go faster this time. Still, the results may not be known on election night. The state allows late-arriving mail-in ballots, so it could take days before we know the final results.

Pennsylvaniaone of the key battleground states, did not have a clear winner in 2020 for four days after Election Day. The state is one of the few that does not allow election officials to begin processing mail-in ballots until Election Day, meaning it will likely take several days before the results are known.

IN Michigancounting may be faster than in previous elections, as it now allows officials to begin processing mail-in ballots before Election Day, but we don’t yet have a clear time for when the state may be called.

IN Arizonaofficials can begin processing mail-in ballots as soon as they are received. The first results are expected to be reported around 22 Eastern Time (02:00 GMT), one hour after the polls close.

Finally in Wisconsinpoll workers can’t begin processing ballots until Election Day, meaning there could also be delays, just like in Pennsylvania. According to a CNN report, the results are not likely until Wednesday.

What happens if there is a tie?

If there is a 269–269 tie or a third-party candidate wins electoral votes, preventing any candidate from obtaining 270 votes, the following step is known as a “contingent election”.

A quota election is the process that takes place when the US House of Representatives decides the winner. Each state’s delegation in the House casts one vote, and a candidate must receive a majority of the state delegation’s votes to win.

The United States Senate would then elect the Vice President, with each senator casting one vote and a simple majority (51 votes) required to win.

There have been three instances of quota elections in the United States, in 1801, 1825, and 1837. The closest election in recent years was the 2000 presidential contest, when George W. Bush won 271 Electoral College votes—just one more than he needed—after a controversial retelling in Florida. Outgoing Vice President Al Gore won 266 Electoral College votes.

Are there concerns about a potential delay this year?

If the publication of the results is delayed, “it certainly increases feelings of fraud and illegitimacy,” La Raja said.

“The longer we wait, people are thinking: What is going on behind closed doors? How are they counting the ballots? Who is lying?,” he added.

According to him, it is better to have a tight choice and reach “the verdict quickly.”

That fear and doubt arose in 2021, when thousands of supporters of then-President Trump stormed the Capitol, trying to overturn his 2020 election loss, forcing lawmakers to run for safety. This happened after he told his followers to “fight like hell.”

What has happened in previous years?

In the last election of 2020, the results were announced four days after the November 3 election, when Pennsylvania’s results were certified. In the previous election in 2016, Hillary Clinton conceded to Donald Trump the morning after the election.

In the 2020 election, some states experienced what is known as a “red mirage,” in which Trump appeared to be leading when the first votes were counted on election night. A “blue shift” occurred as additional mail-in ballots were counted and President Joe Biden took the lead.