Who is winning the presidential election right now? What polls predict

On By Littum

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With only five days until the election, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris remain locked in a tight race in Arizona, a presidential swing state where a narrow margin could decide the outcome.

Both candidates and their vice presidential candidates have been campaigning in Arizona in the weeks leading up to the election. They have met, visited border towns and targeted different demographics.

Trump and Harris both visited metro Phoenix on Thursday, indicating how important the Grand Canyon state is in this election. The vice president’s visit was for an election event with the musical group Los Tigres del Norte, while the former president was in town to attend a live show with Tucker Carlson.

Polls and odds have shown a change in momentum and how close the presidential race has become in recent months. But who is more likely to win the game in Arizona and in the nation, and could the ground game help tip the scales?

Here’s what the polls, odds and historians are saying as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, November 5.

Who is leading in the polls in the United States?

Polls and odds are constantly changing, but here was where each candidate stood at 7.30 on 1 November 2024:

  • ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 48% to Trump 46.8%. In the past, Harris has led Trump by as many as 4 percentage points, though recent polls show them much closer.
  • 270 towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 1.2% over Trump.
  • Real clear polling shows that the odds are in Trump’s favor with a spread of +0.3.

More: Is Arizona a swing state in the 2024 presidential election? Here’s what you need to know

Who’s leading the polls in Arizona?

Trump has held a growing lead over Harris in most Arizona polls in recent weeks, but polls show the race remains incredibly close in the battleground state.

Here’s where each candidate stood as of 7.30 on 1 November 2024:

  • ABC News Project 538 shows Trump leading Harris in Arizona polls by 2.3% over Harris.
  • 270 towin shows Trump leading the Arizona polls by 1.8% over Harris.
  • Real clear polling shows that the odds of winning Arizona are in Trump’s favor with a spread of +2.3.

Historians who have predicted 9 out of 10 elections weigh in

Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at American University in Washington, DC. He earned a doctorate from Harvard, specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods.

He has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the last 10 presidential elections and has confirmed his prediction of which candidate will regain the White House.

This year, he predicts Vice President Kamala Harris will win.

How accurate have election odds or opinion polls been in past presidential elections?

The betting favourite only have lost twice since 1866according to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.

The track record on voting is more challenging since different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins of error.

According to Pew Researchhas the public’s confidence in polling damaged by the failures of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.

Arizona Republic reporters Stephanie Murray and Zach Bradshaw and USA TODAY Network reporter Maria Francis contributed to this article.