November 1st Winds increase fire risk and then cooler into the weekend

1 November 2024

Report Friday morning

We have a brand new month, but the same old weather pattern. A cold front brings a thin line of rain. If you get a shower this morning, it could be the first measurable rain in 29 days (October 2).

The new drought report shows the growing concern. It may also be underestimating the impact in some parts of our region.

Dry weather, which continues along with strong winds, has raised concerns about the risk of wildfires. Something to take seriously heading into the weekend and the temptation of a bonfire.

After a chilly weekend, the temps are back up near record high territory next week.

Radar Snapshot

Live radar

Drought update

No measurable rain since October 2 = 29 days!

Until maybe this morning, but whatever we get won’t make a dent in our drought.

Rainfall -5.99″ since September 1st

Fire hazard

There is a Fire Weather Watch in southern PA and a red flag warning of greater concern in New Jersey and metro New York.

Morning temperatures

Some cloud cover, and still mild ahead of the cold front!

Surface weather in the morning

This cold front may bring a brief shower, then back to gusty winds and finally cooler weather this weekend.

Wind forecast 8 am to 8 pm

Snapshot at 3 p.m

Gusts 20 to 30 mph.

Temperatures in the afternoon

Stays warm! The colder air with the new air mass will arrive tomorrow.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY November 1

Sunrise at 7.35

Sunset at 18.05

Normal low in Baltimore: 41ºF

Record 29ºF in 1954

Normal high in Baltimore: 63ºF

Record 86ºF 1950

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 2

Low mornings

Afternoon height

Sunday

Sunny and cool….Dry for the Ravens game.

Animation: Sunday to Wednesday

Stays dry! The next cold front will produce severe storm outbreaks in the Midwest, but the rain will disappear once it reaches our region and the East Coast.

Wednesday

Another slight chance of rain as temperatures rise to near record levels.

NOAA temperature forecast

I continue to show this with reference to our extended forecast below.

7 day weather forecast

No real rain in sight. Drought concerns will grow as temperatures recover from the cooler weekend and become very warm again next week.

The 80ºF forecast for Wednesday will set a record high.

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FIRST FROST DATES

Here are the average dates across Maryland and they match the advisories we saw last week.

Click on this image to see more details in Maryland and Pennsylvania.

FOUR SUPER MOONS OF 2024

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PLAN A WEATHER-BASED STRAIN ASSEMBLY

Severe weather: Storm Smart October and next spring

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REPEAT MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I realize there are some spelling and grammar mistakes and occasional other mistakes. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer errors I may miss. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here you might have missed it: I am dyslexic and found out during my sophomore year at Cornell University. That didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had come this far without knowing it and not to let it be a crutch going forward. It was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make matters worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasts. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.

There has been no editor to check my work while you write and to have it ready to air in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of web team which helps me maintain this page. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is free. It could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and maybe prove that what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF