Kamala Harris is looking good heading into Election Day — at least on paper

As election day draws closer, the tension becomes more palpable. The polls release their final surveys, millions cast their ballots by mail and early in-person voting begins around the country. And there is no more clarity about whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will prevail than there was two weeks ago.

As is the usual behavior of the two parties, Republicans are publicly blustering while they are underlines Trump’s chances behind the scenes, while The Democrats are simply stressed everywhere. But at least on paper, there is good reason to be hopeful about Harris’ odds of victory. There are wide gaps across the board between the two campaigns, either of which could be the deciding factor next week.

The most glaring advantage Harris’ campaign has is a massive war chest quickly built up since she took over as her party’s presumptive nominee in July. At the beginning of October, she had raised 1 billion between her campaign and a joint fundraising committee with the Democratic National Committee. And donors have not slowed the deluge of cash. In the first half of October alone, her campaign and affiliates reported to the Federal Election Commission that they would raised another $147 million. By comparison, Trump’s network brought in $97 million during the same period.

Harris’s campaign is investing the money in both an advertising avalanche in battleground states and a giant gamble. The Harris campaign has opened 50 offices in Pennsylvania alonewho coordinates a massive get-out-the-vote operation. The same is true in Michigan, where her campaign hopes to draw as many ‘Never Trump’ Republicans to the polls as possible. Trump’s campaign is struggling to match Democrats’ presence, having turned over most of its get-out-the-vote efforts to super PACs and other affiliated groups.

As for the candidates themselves, Trump may be taking advantage of some voters’ hazy memories of his first term, but remarkably, Harris has managed to stripped him of the title “change candidate”. in the eyes of many voters. That’s no small feat when she’s the one currently serving in the administration of President Joe Biden. And Harris tried to remind voters of how chaotic Trump’s tenure was her last major campaign speech. Tuesday’s speech warning about the danger Trump poses was delivered at the Ellipse, the site of his January 6, 2021 speech that inspired a mob to attack the Capitol.

Much of the final days of the campaign will be spent targeting the few remaining undecided voters, and one of the two candidates is better positioned to increase their support. The final national New York Times/Siena College poll found “about 15 percent of voters described themselves as undecided, and Ms. Harris leads with this group, 42 percent to 32 percent.” It’s not clear how many of them will break for her, but it’s still an encouraging sign. Also, Harris’s favoritism has returned since she entered the race. Although Trump’s popularity has also increased since the first assassination attempt on him this summer, he is still decidedly unpopular. And his previous two presidential candidates ended up with roughly the same share of the popular vote, suggesting a clear ceiling for national support.

Harris also has the advantage of one of the most motivating factors in this election: abortion. The furious backlash to the overturning of Roe v. Wade fueled the Democrats’ outperformance in the 2022 midterms. There is no sign that the energy has waned in the past two years, especially when several states this year have abortion access initiatives on the ballot. Trump has tried that soften his rhetoriconly to boast that his Supreme Court nominees are ending Roe.

Finally, even the economy has improved beyond what many would have predicted two years ago, with inflation falling back to pre-pandemic levels and interest rates falling. Harris is also winning over Trump in polls on that front. And among demographic after demographicthe opinion polls has tightened in favor of Harris.

There are enough positive signs that as This is what the New York Times writes on MondayHarris aides are “growing cautiously optimistic” about the race. But the specter of 2016 still hangs over the election. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was ahead in the polls going into Election Day, had won her debates against Trump and seemingly had every possible lead against him. But that evening, it quickly became clear that Trump would be able to claim victory, thanks in part to one increase of infrequent votersa phenomenon his campaign is trying to replicate this time around.

With that nightmare still burned into every Democrat’s mind, the Harris camp won’t kiss for the next week. There are still plenty of data points out there to give them shakes. It really seems like any small change in voter demographics, turnout, or enthusiasm can swing things one way or the other.

Therefore, Harris’ team has presented itself as the underdog for the entire time she has been in the race. It’s a good mindset to have when things are so uncertain. Because while Harris has plenty of reasons to feel good about his odds on paper, it’s impossible not to worry that we could still see it all go up in smoke.