NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Green in Rockets vs. Mavericks)

Thursday’s NBA action features several teams on the second night of a back-to-back (Memphis, San Antonio and Los Angeles Clippers), meaning there’s only one game — Dallas vs. Houston — where we have a full injury report for , who will play tonight.

I’m looking to make a single bet on Thursday as there is a lot of uncertainty across the board when it comes to injuries.

Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart were both injured in the Grizzlies’ loss on Wednesday to the Brooklyn Nets, and in some other games, key players like Lauri Markkanen and Bradley Beal are listed as questionable, which could really change how these matchups end.

As always, there’s a chance to make a bet after I release this column, but there’s one bet I love between Houston and Dallas. So let’s break it down.

Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays BetStamp here.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jalen Green OVER 23.5 points (-120) — 0.5 unit

Houston Rockets guard Jalen Green is off to a fast start to the 2024-25 season, averaging 28.8 points per game. game while shooting 43.2 percent from the field and 41.3 percent from beyond the arc.

Houston’s decision to pay Green this offseason looks like a good move right now, as he has scored at least 22 points in all four of the Rockets’ games, which has been on offense in a win over the Spurs (36 points) their last time out.

Green’s shooting percentage is 31.4 this season – a career high – and he’s taken at least 21 shots in every game this season. In addition to that, Green gets to the line, averaging six free throw attempts per game. match.

I think it’s a favorable matchup for him after Dallas gave Anthony Edwards 24 points in the first quarter – 37 total – on Tuesday night. Usage for Green is key, as he’s shot well enough where taking 20-plus shots should get him over that line.

He’s averaged 23.5 points in three of his four games, and I expect this matchup to be relatively close—Houston is a 6.5-point underdog—which should help keep Green from being benched in garbage time.

Since the Mavericks have moved on from Derrick Jones Jr. offseason, they don’t have an elite guard defender in their starting lineup. Green may draw an assignment from PJ Washington, but it’s also possible he starts against Kyrie Irving or Klay Thompson. If so, I love this number for Green on Thursday.

Bonus: Luka Doncic 3-Point Prop

I’m looking at Luka Doncic in the 3-point market – but as of this writing, I haven’t bet on his prop yet because the odds of him going OVER 2.5 3-pointers (-175) are a little high for my taste . .

Depending on the movement of this prop leading up to game time, this may be something I add to my map. Doncic has made at least eight 3-pointers in every game this season, but he’s just 2-for-17 from beyond the arc over his last two games.

If Doncic’s prop stays at 2.5, there’s a chance I’ll end up betting the OVER based on volume, but given his games, if the -175 ends up being heavily bet and oddsmakers move the line to 3.5 , it can be a good place to go UNDER.

Keep up to date with my Betstamp (@peter2dewey) for real time updates on the bets I place.

Odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and would like help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.