Hope still exists for Turkey-PKK detente, despite deadly attack | PKK News

Istanbul, Turkey – The sight of Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), walking across the floor of the Turkish parliament on October 1 and shaking hands with politicians from a pro-Kurdish party, DEM, was unlikely.

The MHP leader, a close ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been a vocal opponent of Kurdish demands for more rights. He has referred to Kurdish politicians as “terrorists” and accuses them of links to the PKK, an armed group listed as a “terrorist organization” by Turkey and the West. He also called for DEM’s predecessor to be banned.

The promise of fresh peace talks between Turkey and the Kurdish fighters who have waged a 40-year insurgency were thrown into doubt last month after an attack on an aerospace facility near the capital Ankara.

Bahceli later said his gesture was a “message of national unity and brotherhood”.

Weeks later, he raised the possibility that PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, who has been serving a life sentence since 1999, could be paroled if he renounced violence and disbanded his organization.

And then, the very day after October 23, an attack on the aerospace and defense company TUSAS, which killed five people and left the two assailants dead, threatened to reverse the small steps that had been taken.

TUSAS makes civilian and military aircraft, including unmanned drones, which have been crucial in the fight against the PKK, which has been waging a war against the Turkish state since the 1980s as part of an effort to demand more autonomy for Kurds who lives in southeastern Turkey.

The PKK claimed responsibility for the TUSAS attack two days later. Its statement said the raid was unrelated to the latest “political agenda” but had been planned long before because TUSAS weapons “killed thousands of civilians, including children and women, in Kurdistan”.

‘Historical window of opportunity’

And yet the attack may not be the death knell for the potential rapprochement that some initially feared. Instead, there appear to be elements of an underlying desire on both sides to push for a solution to a long-running conflict that has killed tens of thousands.

DEM quickly made it clear they were against the TUSAS attack, condemning it and saying it was “meaningful” that it took place “when Turkish society is talking about a solution and the possibility of dialogue is emerging” .

Even after the attack, Erdogan himself described the development as a “unique opportunity”.

While praising Bahceli’s “willingness to focus on the right path” in a speech on October 30, the president said: “Those who read the calls of the MHP chairman in this context see the historic window of opportunity.”

DEM is now reportedly trying to arrange a formal structure for peace talks involving senior figures from the political parties.

Ibrahim Akin, a DEM party MP, described Bahceli’s remarks about Öcalan as a “sign of a new era” and an indication of the government’s approach.

“However, there are still many things that are uncertain and cause hesitation,” he said. “We want a transparent process to be carried out in which all parties and all political actors are included.”

Justification

After the Ankara attack, Turkey launched a wave of airstrikes against the PKK in Iraq and Syria.

The group has managed its operations in Turkey from northern Iraq’s Qandil Mountains since the late 1990s. The Turkish military has severely curtailed PKK activity in Turkey in recent years through the establishment of dozens of bases on the Iraqi side of the border and cross-border airstrikes.

In northeastern Syria, meanwhile, Turkey has also targeted the PKK-affiliated People’s Defense Units (YPG), which the US has supported since 2015 in the fight against ISIL (ISIS), providing weapons and training. American support for the Kurdish armed group strained Turkey’s relationship with the United States.

While Turkey recognizes no separation between the PKK and the YPG, most Western states have refused to designate the latter as a “terrorist” group. After the TUSAS attack, Erdogan said the two PKK attackers had crossed into Turkey from Syria, implicating the YPG.

Some commentators see the rationale behind the latest push for talks as Erdogan’s desire to change Turkey’s current constitution, which would not allow him to run for office again unless early elections are called.

DEM – the third largest party in parliament – ​​could provide valuable support.

“The ruling coalition is likely to try to change the constitution to remove Erdogan’s time limits,” said Berk Esen, a political scientist at Istanbul’s Sabanci University. “They probably want to split the opposition coalition and co-opt, if not directly the Kurdish political movement, then at least some Kurdish voters, especially conservative Kurdish voters in southeastern Anatolia.”

The idea of ​​an agreement between the Turkish government under Erdogan and the PKK is not as far-fetched as it might at first appear. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party) made a strong effort in its first years in power in the 2000s to give more rights to Kurds in Turkey, who had long been a marginalized group. A peace process launched in 2013 appeared close to success at times before failing in 2015.

The current move also comes at a time of extreme unrest in the Middle East. US support for Israel has reportedly unsettled Kurdish groups, including the PKK, which has historic ties to Palestinian armed groups. DEM is strongly critical of Israeli actions in Gaza and Lebanon.

Another Donald Trump presidency is also likely to see US troops withdrawn from Syria, removing protections for the YPG.

Esen said Turkey may be taking a “preemptive step to fill the political vacuum that is emerging in the Middle East” to “move forward in the region”.

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the Ankara-based German Marshall Fund, said “favorable conditions, including regional actors preoccupied with other crises and the PKK’s weakened state, suggest an opportunity for progress”.

However, he questioned whether Ocalan, who has been held incommunicado in recent years, retains enough influence over the PKK to steer the process.

“Furthermore, there are limits to what the Turkish public can tolerate when it comes to talks with the PKK, and having Ocalan speak in the Turkish parliament remains outside those limits,” Unluhisarcikli added.

A poll conducted by the Institute of Social Studies on October 24 found that nearly three-quarters of respondents were against Ocalan’s release. In a less scientific measure of public reaction, soccer fans at a Fenerbahce match in Istanbul shouted insults about the PKK leader in the wake of the Ankara attack.