2024-25 OKC Thunder 3-point shooting pick: good process, bad results

The Oklahoma City Thunder have started the 2024-25 season undefeated, winning all four games by 12 or more points while averaging 112.3 points per game. 17th-most in the NBA.

The 2023-24 team fourth highest offensive rating has fallen with around seven points per 100 possessions so far this year due to slightly fewer offensive rebounds and a lower free throw rate. The most glaring decline, however, is a much less efficient shooting offense.

Most rotation players — except for Luguentz Dort and Chet Holmgren — have registered a worse effective field goal percentage to start this season than they did last year. Only Aaron Wiggins, Holmgren, Ousmane Dieng and Dort have increased their 2-point percentage. Team 2-point attempt leaders Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams have combined for 50.0% on 106 attempts after making 57.6% of their 1,970 attempts last season.

Oklahoma City’s struggles inside the arc have come along with outside shooting woes.
Dort has shot a scorching 11-for-19 (57.9%) from downtown through four games, but every other Thunder player with five or more attempts has a worse 3-point percentage than last season. Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso and Wiggins, a trio that all shot over 40% from deep in the 2023-24 campaign, have combined for an anemic four marks in 30 attempts so far.

The good news for the Thunder: a four-game test cannot determine the team’s 3-point quality due to limited volume. The team shot 22.2% and 20.0% on 3-point attempts in their first two games, but went a combined 33-for-81 (40.7%) against the Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs.

Oklahoma City is the most selective outside shooting team in the league, taking a large majority of their 3-point shots in open or wide coverage. Their 33.0% 3-point percentage with the nearest defender six or more feet away is fourth-lowest in the league behind the Houston Rockets, Spurs and Philadelphia 76ers.

Williams, Holmgren, Caruso and Wallace have recorded a 6-for-39 overall (15.4%) on wide-open 3-point attempts. That output inspires optimism going forward because they are proven shooters who look good — as evidenced by their combined 316-for-732 (43.2%) 2023-24 wide-open 3-point total.

Wallace has fired 1-for-9 on catch-and-shoot triples after making 44.2% of his 206 catch-and-shoot attempts last season. His open air ball in the left corner against the Hawks, after Gilgeous-Alexander executed a slick drive-and-kick, encapsulates Oklahoma City’s cumulative despondency despite quality looks.

The Thunder take on the Portland Trail Blazers tonight at 9 p.m. CST.

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