Election 2024: What historic early voting can – and cannot do

Election Day in the US is officially on Tuesday, but millions of Americans have already cast their ballots. As early polls around the country drew lines, more than 62.7 million had voters handed in ballots by Thursday – a landmark figure.

Partisans on both sides have been quick to cite the early voting data as evidence that their side is gaining some sort of decisive advantage. But what does it all mean? It is a difficult question to answer.

There’s one thing we can say for sure: American voting habits have changed as pandemic behavioral changes take hold. This year’s total number of early votes is far behind the 101.5 million. early ballots cast in 2020, when the Covid virus kept many away from crowded polling stations, but that’s more than the total number of early votes cast in 2016 (47.2m) or 2012 (46.2m).

Although each state handles early voting differently, we can also learn a little about who is participating. Some states release raw totals of votes cast via mail-in ballots, in-person polling days, or both. Many share the party registration of voters and sometimes more detailed demographic information, such as gender, race and age.

The rest of the picture is much murkier, however, and any insight into this election season is best taken with a large dose of salt.

Many of the conclusions about early voting are drawn on the basis of the demographic data alone. We will only find out which candidates these ballots have been cast for on election day.

But here’s what I notice, from state reports like prepared by the University of Florida Election Lab.

Republicans seem to be losing their wariness about voting early. In 2020, they made up 30.5% of the total early votes cast in the 20 states that track party registration, compared to 44.8% for Democrats. That was partly due to Trump’s warning that postal voting was fraught with corruption.

The former president is singing a different tune this year, and so are Republicans so far. They represent 36.1% of early votes cast statewide, while Democrats represent 38.9% (the remaining quarter came from voters who are not affiliated with any party or who registered with a third party).

This is important because it means that a “red mirage” effect can be less pronounced. Republicans took an early lead four years ago in places like Pennsylvania because the in-person votes on Election Day were counted before poll workers counted the early ballots that favored Democrats.

Meanwhile, Democrats this year may be encouraged by the gender gap — at least in terms of early voting.

In the six states reporting gender data, including the battleground states of Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina, women cast 54.2% of early ballots so far. That’s a few percentage points higher than the 2020 mark found in a exit polls conducted by Edison Research after the election.

If the latest polls are correct, and women now support Democrats by a historically large margin, it could mean a boost for Vice President Kamala Harris.

Drilling down state by state, more than 50% of eligible voters have now cast ballots in Georgia – a sign that voter enthusiasm is high. Early voter turnout is slightly whiter and older than the earliest constituencies in 2020. That could help Donald Trump.

The former president is also getting good news in Nevada, where more registered Republicans have cast ballots than registered Democrats. It’s a dramatic break from previous elections, in which Democrats built a large advantage in early voting, particularly in the Las Vegas metropolitan area, which helped them prevail despite a surge of rural conservatives who voted on Election Day.

Like most early voting data, however, Nevada’s tabulations come with an asterisk. A growing number of young voters are now independents, even if they lean to the left. If they end up voting for Harris, that could put the state in Harris’ column on Election Day.

There are similar glass half full or half empty examples all over the map. In Pennsylvania, for example, more registered Democrats have voted than Republicans — but they’re doing so by a smaller margin than in 2020, when President Joe Biden won the state.

And none of that takes into account independent voters, frustrated moderate suburban Republicans who might vote for Harris, or traditional blue-collar Democrats who are now on board with Trump.

And, lest we forget, 158 million Americans voted for president in 2020 – 65.9% of the eligible voting population. Even if we don’t hit that mark this time, there are still many potential ballots waiting to be cast.

Political junkies may be desperate to read the tea leaves with just a handful of days until the election, but at the moment the results are mostly just hot water.

North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher opines on the race for the White House in his twice-weekly US Election Unspun newsletter. Readers in the UK can register here. Those outside the UK can register here.