When Israel attacked Iran, Israel finally listened to the US. Why?

WASHINGTON — In 13 months of horrific war in the Gaza Strip, the US has repeatedly pressed Israel to limit civilian casualties and provide more humanitarian aid.

Israel repeatedly ignored US advice and requests with more than 42,000 Palestinians killed, according to Gaza health officials. The flow of aid has been so slow, often halted by Israel, that many Palestinians face starvation.

In the offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, a similar pattern emerges. The US called for the bombing to be limited and targeted, but Israel blasted away in southern Lebanon, Beirut and as far north as Tripoli.

But when it came to Israel’s retaliatory airstrikes on Iran, the dynamic was different.

Iran launched a barrage of nearly 200 missiles and rockets at Israel on October 1 in retaliation for Israel’s killing of several senior commanders of Hezbollah, Hamas and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Most were intercepted by Israeli forces and air defense systems, supported by the United States and Britain.

Israel immediately vowed to retaliate. The question was when and how.

President Biden asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid hitting nuclear research sites and oil fields. And when Israeli warplanes fired missiles at Iran on Oct. 26, in its largest-ever operation, they hit primarily military targets and only four people — all soldiers — were reported killed.

Here’s a look at the thinking that went into Israel’s actions in Iran.

Why did Netanyahu limit targets this time?

The Israeli prime minister undoubtedly recognized that Iran was another adversary, far more powerful and potentially dangerous than militant groups Hamas and even Hezbollah, Iran’s main proxy in the region. Iran would be able to respond more violently than these groups, although it has been shown to be adverse to direct conflict.

That in turn could lead to far greater escalation and destabilization throughout the region, possibly drawing in additional countries and drawing the United States deeper into the conflict.

Israel has managed to destroy most of Gaza and is in the process of pulverizing parts of Lebanon to international condemnation and outrage and political and diplomatic isolation, but without facing effective efforts to rein it in. The price to pay for total war with Iran is likely to be higher.

Was it easy for him to make the decision?

Probably not. US officials put unusually strong pressure on Israel to reduce its targets, according to people familiar with the negotiations. Initially, both the nuclear plants and the oil fields and other energy facilities were on the list. The Israelis agreed to remove the nuclear installations because of the risks involved and the difficulty of removing them. In the end, they also gave in to oil so as not to disrupt the global energy market.

After Iran’s October 1 barrage, Israel also apparently realized that it would not be able to fend off a full-scale Iranian attack on its own and would need support from other countries. So it could not risk alienating the US in these negotiations.

There were more carrots offered by the United States

The Biden administration also convinced Israel by offering more incentives. It imposed yet another series of sanctions on Iran, this time cracking down on the so-called ghost ships, unmarked oil tankers that Iran allegedly uses to export illicit petroleum products; fast tracked to Israel an advanced ballistic missile air defense system, known as THAAD; and launched airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen as a show of solidarity.

Instead of nuclear and energy facilities, Israel said it removed many of Iran’s missile batteries and missile production factories. In what it called precise airstrikes, Israel also crippled much of Iran’s air defense network, the Netanyahu government said.

That was “as much as Israel could handle without a major schism with the Biden administration,” said Bradley Bowman, a military expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. The operation left Iran vulnerable, he said.

Is it over?

Not in any way. Both Israel and Iran say they want to avoid conflagration, but both continue to threaten each other.