Trump takes all but one swing state thanks to strong black support: polls

Could the presidential battleground states ultimately be as uncompetitive as the just-concluded World Series?

That’s the question, as a new list of Atlas Intel swing-state polls shows Donald Trump heading for 287 electoral votes if projections come true on Tuesday.

And key to the former president’s performance in these polls is that black voters support Trump to a degree that other surveys of the race don’t show, suggesting a potential crack in a historic Democratic coalition that goes back more than half a century back.

With the exception of a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it lead of 0.2 points for Kamala Harris in Wisconsin, where she has 49% to 48.8% for Trump, the GOP candidate is up in the swing states that will decide the election.

Among 1,005 likely voters in Arizona, the Mar-a-Lago man leads 50.8% to 45.9%. He leads Harris by nearly 7 points with men, more than 4 points with women and nearly 2 points with independents.

Trump takes more than 5% of Biden 2020 voters, while fewer than 3% of Trump voters last cycle move to Harris.

The former president also takes 26% of the black vote in the state, along with more than 45% of Hispanics.

Among 1,212 likely voters from Georgia, Trump leads 48.8% to 47.2%, positioning the former president to flip another state Biden won in 2020.

People who don’t remember their vote in 2020 or didn’t vote at all are the key here, as Trump has a 20-point advantage with them. He gets more than 25% of the black vote. He also has nearly 50% of Asians, with the rest largely split between Harris and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who has more than 18% support from them.

Among 1,136 likely Michigan voters, Trump has a narrow lead: 49.2% to 48.3%, with spoiler Stein taking 1.7% in the Wolverine State.

Trump’s strength with black voters is notable in this survey, with the former president at 39.9% and Harris at 54%. One reason this might happen: He takes 8% of Biden 2020 voters, while Harris only converts 4.1% of Trump supporters from last cycle.

Nevada also appears to be going for Trump, based on this sample of 845 likely voters, which picks the GOP nominee 50.5% to 46.9%.

As with the other states, Trump’s black support (33.7%) is notable. He also leads Hispanics, 49.7% to 48.2%, and independents, 50.1% to 42.7%. And he is converting 8.9% of Biden 2020 voters while retaining 97.2% of those who voted for him four years ago.

In North Carolina, where 1,373 likely voters were polled, Trump has majority support: 50.7% to 46.7% for Harris, despite a smaller share of black voters supporting him (19.7%) than in other states in the sample.

Trump is up here with independents, 50.2% to 44.1%, as the gender gap plays out in his favor. He has a lead of more than 15 points with men; he is down 7 points with women.

Among 1,738 likely Pennsylvania voters, Trump also has the slight edge: 48.5% to 47.4%, a spread consistent with the last two nail-biting results in the Keystone State. Taking 24% of black voters makes the difference here.