Here are the top 5 US economic issues for voters

With polls shows that Americans rank the economy as their most pressing concern in the Nov. 5 election, both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are making last-minute pitches to convince voters they know how to secure the nation’s economic prosperity.

At the same time, many factors affecting the nation’s economic performance are beyond the president’s control, from shocks like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the pandemic’s supply chain snarl, which contributed to the highest U.S. inflation in 40 years.

Although experts largely give the current economy high marksmost Americans disagree, with 52% telling Gallup they feel worse off today than four years ago. That’s partly because of partisan differences — Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to say they’re struggling more than in 2020, Gallup found — but economists say it’s also tied to lingering pain from the global disruptions caused by the pandemic.

“It’s inflation, stupid!” wrote Bernard Yaros, US chief economist at Oxford Economics, in an Oct. 24 report, borrowing from political strategist James Carville’s famous coin. “Inflation is the number one issue voters are concerned about and how it is perceived will decide the election.”

Here are five key factors that can weigh on voters’ decisions when they cast their ballots.

Inflation: A low rate, but prices remain high

Inflation across the country has cooled significantly from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) down to a three-year low of 2.4% in September, close to the Federal Reserve’s annual target of 2%.

But ask almost any American whether inflation is still high, and the answer is typically a resounding “yes.” In fact, more than 1 in 4 people polled by YouGov said in August that they believe the current inflation rate is above 10%. The reason: the persistent pinch of high prices. Although inflation has fallen close to pre-pandemic levels, prices have not fallen and continue to affect consumers.

Take grocery prices, which rose a scant 1.3% in September from a year earlier. While this rate is low, it still means shoppers will have to pay 1.3% more to fill their shopping cart on top of food prices that had already risen 26% since January 2020. That’s hard for many people to swallow.

“If enough independent voters in battleground states still feel sticker shock from alarmingly high inflation in 2021 and 2022, former President Donald Trump is expected to win the Electoral College,” Yaros wrote.

In contrast: “If swing voters instead focus on the rate of change in consumer prices rather than the price level, they will be more likely to support the vice president because of the significant moderation in inflation since mid-2022,” he noted.

Jobs and wages: winners and losers

The labor market is strong, with the US unemployment rate near a 50-year low. Still, unemployment has risen in recent months, one reason why the Fed chose to lower the interest rate last month. Wages have grown faster than inflation since May 2023, helping to dig some households out of the financial hole created by rising prices.

But such statistics do not offset the long-term problems affecting some workers. Men without college degrees, for example, have lost economic ground over recent decades as the labor market shifted to occupations requiring higher education.

White men without a bachelor’s degree earned more than the typical worker in 1980, the New York Times found in a recent analysis of census data. But now this group of workers earns much less than the average American, while college-educated women have surpassed them in earnings.

White Americans without a college degree are both more likely to say the economy is in bad shape than those with a bachelor’s degree and are also more likely to support Trump, CBS News vote shows. In a poll from CBS News on 23-25 As of October, about 63% of whites without a college degree said they planned to vote for Trump, compared with 48% of those with a post-secondary degree.

Immigration: Costs to the economy

Voters also rank immigration as a top issue, and Trump has stepped up his attacks on the Biden-Harris administration’s record on illegal immigration and vowed to largest expulsion in American history if elected.

But it’s also an economic problem, as there are more than 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States, many of whom work in meatpacking plants, on farms, on construction sites and other jobs that are key to the country’s welfare.

Deporting these immigrants could cause major economic headwinds, according to Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “Deporting migrants would be stagflationary for the US economy,” he wrote on the X of July. “The greater the restrictions and deportations, the more the recessionary effects outweigh the inflationary effects for the Fed.”

It would also cost taxpayers billions to deport millions of people, with a CBS News analysis estimating that it would cost $20 billion to apprehend and deport 1 million people alone.

Taxes: Cuts Ahead?

Taxes have taken center stage with both campaigns, as Trump and Harris have promised to enact a series of tax cuts and credits to help certain groups of people.

In some cases, the candidates have offered the same tax breaks, such as one more remove taxes on tips. But Trump has gone further, offering a laundry list of cuts to everyone from Social Security Recipients to car buyers.

But the biggest issue ahead is the future of the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act, Trump’s signature 2017 legislation that delivered big tax cuts to businesses and the wealthy, as well as more modest cuts to millions of other Americans. Trump wants to renew many of these provisions while cutting the corporate tax rate to 15% from its current 21%.

Still, changes to the tax code must be passed by the House and Senate, which could be a tall order for either candidate if there is a divided Congress under the next administration.

The Federal Deficit and Debt: Getting Bigger

Another issue is the national debt and the nation’s growing deficit, with both candidates’ economic proposals expected to add trillions to the nation’s debt.

Harris’ plans would add nearly $4 trillion in debt through 2035, while Trump’s plan would increase it by nearly $8 trillion, according to a new analysis from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which advocates narrowing deficits.

“The national debt is currently 99% of gross domestic product (GDP) and is expected to grow from 102% of GDP at the start of (fiscal year) 2026 to 125% by the end of 2035 based on the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) current legislative basis ,” the group wrote in an Oct. 28 analysis.

It added: “Whoever wins the 2024 presidential election will face an unprecedented fiscal situation when they take office … Already, the cost of servicing our high and rising national debt has eclipsed the cost of defending our nation or providing health care for older Americans.”

It’s also a question Americans in battleground states worry about, according to one October vote from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which found that 9 in 10 voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin believe the candidates need a plan to reduce the nation’s debt.