Pennsylvania voters are evenly split between Harris, the Trump poll shows

On November 1, 2024By Littum

With days before Tuesday’s Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania, one of several key states that could decide the winner, a new exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk poll shows.

Harris and Trump are tied with 49% of the vote each, according to a statewide poll of 500 likely voters conducted Oct. 27-30 with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

A poll of 300 likely voters in Erie County, which could indicate which way the state is trending, was also tied 48% to 48%. Northampton County, another bellwether in Pennsylvania, leaned slightly toward Trump, with 50% saying they supported him, to Harris’ 48%. The results of the county polls are within the margin of error of 5.65 percentage points.

Together, David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said the county and statewide data show Pennsylvania is “really a toss up.”

“We have all results within the margin of error … it’s basically a statistical tie,” Paleologos said.

Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes – the most out of the swing states. Both candidates have been campaigning in the state this week. Trump held a rally in Allentown on Tuesday, while Harris visited Harrisburg Wednesday.

Biden won Pennsylvania by a razor-thin margin of one percentage point in 2020. He flipped both Erie and Northampton County, which Trump had won in 2016.

The state is part of the “blue wall,” a group of states that voted blue in recent federal elections until Trump won three of them — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — in 2016.

Undecided and third-party voters

Most voters in Pennsylvania have already decided who to support, but with the race as tight as it is, that small percentage of undecideds could affect the outcome of the election in the state – and the country.

So could third-party candidates. In Pennsylvania, there are two options outside of Trump and Harris on the ballot — Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver. They each garnered 1% or less support in the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll.

But if the Pennsylvania election is as close as the polls suggest, a candidate with 0.5% could tip the scales for Harris or Trump, Paleologos said.

Jason Danner, 38, is among the few remaining undecided voters in Pennsylvania.

While Danner said he believes Trump was a good president, he is concerned that Trump uses “divisive” and “undemocratic” rhetoric and “doesn’t seem to respect the Constitution.” On the other hand, he is concerned that Harris would continue Biden’s policies.

A registered Democrat, when Danner eventually gets to the polls, he said he will “most likely” vote for Harris. But he just wants to do it reluctantly.

“I’ve voted all my life,” he said. “This is almost the first election where I’m not even going to vote because I’ve become so apathetic about our political climate.”

Sean Doyle said he plans to vote but will leave the president’s box empty. After voting for Biden in the last election cycle, Doyle said he cannot accept that Harris was not elected in a primary process.

“We needed an honest primary and it was taken away from us,” he said. “I can’t bear to vote for the candidate whose party thinks it’s OK to rip off voters like that.”

A veteran who served for 12 years, Doyle said his politics align most closely with the Libertarian Party, but feels it would be a waste of his ballot to cast a third-party vote. In 2020, he decided at the last minute against endorsing Trump after he “remembered all the things he said negatively about veterans.”

While he supports the Democrats’ economic policies, he feels increasingly “disillusioned” with the party.

“I’ve seen less and less and less when it comes to anything that actually helps me,” he said.

The gender difference

Nationally, Harris leads decisively among women, and Trump has achieved a similar advantage with men.

And in Pennsylvania, that gender gap is “very pronounced,” Paleologos said.

Trump is up 20 points among men in Pennsylvania, 57% to 37%, while Harris has an 18% hold on women over Trump, 57% to 39%. That compares to Trump’s 16-point advantage among men nationally and Harris’ 17-point advantage among women.

“Where the rubber hits the road is in the couple’s household,” Paleologos said. “It’s the married women and married men who are struggling with this election because they’re talking about it under their roof.”

Kathleen Keshgegian, 42, said women’s rights are central to why she has already cast her vote for Harris. “I have two daughters and that’s my big problem,” she said.

“I terminated a pregnancy, and if I didn’t have that opportunity, I think my life would be completely different, and most likely not in a good way,” said Keshgegian, a stay-at-home mother of three children ages 11, 8 and 6, who live in Oreland, a suburb of Philadelphia.

Although Keshgegian voted for President Biden in 2020 because she felt he was the best choice, she would prefer someone younger, more in tune with a change in government, as opposed to the same old white men, she said. She feels more connected to Harris, whom she finds more relatable and compassionate and less divisive.

Keshgegian said Trump may be able to bring prices down, and she understands people may vote for him for that reason. But she cannot abide what she sees as his other qualities. “He’s rude, he’s sexist. I’m pretty sure he’s a criminal,” she said.

“I’d rather have less money in my pocket than have someone with his ideals.”

That bill weighs differently for others.

Luanne McDonald of Lancaster, Pennsylvania, said she has “mixed feelings” about the election and considers both Trump and Harris “terrible” candidates. McDonald, a self-described independent, does not agree with Trump’s positions on abortion or women’s rights, but thinks Harris is “weak and creepy.”

She voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and plans to do so again on November 5. When it comes to the issues that matter most to her — the economy and law and order — McDonald said she feels Trump will do a better job.

“I could buy a Babka at my Whole Foods when he was president, I can’t afford it now,” said McDonald, a former nurse, referring to a traditional Jewish sweet bread. “I have never felt poor until now.”

Not surprisingly, more than 70% of people who viewed current economic conditions as bad said they supported Trump. Harris did better than Trump with those who thought the economy was in fair, good or excellent shape.

Eric Huhn, 62, plans to vote Republican, from Trump all the way to the bottom of the ticket.

The owner of a house painting and wallpaper business in Chalfont, about 30 miles north of Philadelphia, Huhn said financial problems are his top priority. “Being self-employed, nothing affects me more than what the government does to the economy,” he said.

He believes the Republican platform can deliver.

Cheaper energy “will help reduce commodity costs, less regulation will also help promote growth for business,” he said. “I like the Republicans for their more conservative views on spending and limited government.”

Trevor Borchelt, of Berks County, Pa., describes himself as a Reagan-era Republican who believes in fiscal conservatism and moral responsibility. But he said the party has lost sight of those ideals under Trump and plans to vote for Harris on Election Day, citing “democracy” as his biggest concern.

“I don’t disagree with some of Trump’s policies,” said Borchelt, 44, noting the former president’s tax and pro-manufacturing policies. “But if you don’t cross the line to accept the results of an election, you’re not going to be involved in a democratic election.”

Trump faces multiple criminal charges for efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election and has refused to say he would accept the outcome of the 2024 race.

Borchelt has never cast a vote for Trump – in 2016 he voted for Libertarian Party candidate Barry Johnson, and in 2020 he supported Biden. This year, he said, he hopes Trump will lose and that politics will return to “honest debates about real issues, instead of all the uproar and the violence and the ugliness.”

“I’m a little tired,” he said.