Harris up 1 point in HarrisX/Forbes survey

On By Littum

Upper line

Vice President Kamala Harris has a razor-thin one-point edge over former President Donald Trump, according to a new citizen HarrisX/Forbes poll released Thursday, marking a statistically tied race less than a week before Election Day — but one in ten likely voters could change their minds.

Key facts

Harris leads Trump 49%-48% among likely voters, with 2% backing independent candidate Cornel West and 1% favoring the Green Party’s Jill Stein — including voters who were undecided but leaning toward one candidate (the data includes people who voted early) .

It looks like one HarrisX/Forbes survey a week earlier, which found Trump with a 49%-48% lead including “leaners,” but a tighter race than shortly after last month’s debate, when Harris led Trump 52%-48%, excluding third parties.

Harris’ lead is also 49%-48% across the seven battleground states likely to decide the winner, compared with a Trump advantage of 50%-46% a week ago.

There’s still room for the race to shift, even with just days to go: About 10% of likely voters and 16% of all registered voters are still considering their choice, including 14% of voters in the race, three in 10 independents , nearly a quarter of voters aged 18 to 34 and more than a fifth of black and Hispanic voters.

HarrisX surveyed 4,523 registered voters and 3,718 likely voters, about 910 of whom were in the battleground states, between Sunday and Tuesday — the margin of error was about 1.5 percentage points.

Crucial quote

“The race is a statistical tie and it will be an election. Trump has won the national vote, but Harris has narrowed the race in the battleground states. Anything is possible, including Trump winning the national vote and Harris squeaking through the Electoral College , and so the race remains hard to call from a polling perspective, Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX, told Forbes in an email.

Additional view

Key background

As Election Day approaches, the race between Trump and Harris is among the closest this month. Harris has a 1.2 point lead in FiveThirtyEight’s the national polling averagebut Trump is narrowly favored in most battleground states — albeit by single-digit margins that could easily flip. In a race this close, turnout could prove crucial, as Harris driver among frequent voters, while Trump has a large lead among so-called low-propensity voters. The race could also hinge on racial shifts: The HarrisX/Forbes poll found Harris with a 10-point lead among Hispanics and a 47-point margin with black voters — far weaker numbers than President Joe Biden in 2020— but Trump’s 11-point lead with white voters is smaller than his advantage in 2020. Trump’s drive to win more Hispanic voters hit a snag Sunday when a comedian at his rally called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage,” which drew outcry from a litany of well-known Puerto Ricans, though its impact on the race is unclear.

What to look for

The gender gap — with Trump leading among men and Harris leading among women — remains a potent force in the race. “For the last stretch, Trump has to focus on women and Harris on men, with each holding a 10-point advantage over the other — one of the largest among demographics,” Nesho said.

Key

Registered voters are slightly more likely to have a favorable view of Harris (47%) than Trump (45%), but both candidates are viewed negatively by more voters (48% for Harris, 51% for Trump)—reflecting a markedly polarized country. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s favorability is just 38%, with 57% viewing him unfavorably.