Damage costs in the 2024 US hurricane season are rising, estimates say

On By Littum

Preliminary economic loss data shows that 2024 is likely to be one of the costlier hurricane seasons of the modern era.

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After five hurricanes made landfall in the continental United States, the disastrous hurricane season of 2024 may not be over yet. With more than a month to go, forecasters see a potential storm in the Caribbean.

Even without another storm, the preliminary number of economic losses — with initial estimates ranging from $127 billion to $129 billion — means it will likely be among the costlier hurricane seasons of the modern era.

Comparing estimated hurricane damage over time can be difficult, but losses after the busy 2005 hurricane season have ranged from about $175 billion when adjusted for inflation to more than $200 billion. Since 1980, the losses per hurricane averaged nearly $23 billion, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“This is a very impactful season overall,” said Jeff Waters, director of North Atlantic Hurricane Models for Moody’s, a global research and analysis firm. “We’re definitely getting into a category here where this season is going to stand out in terms of collective insured losses.”

So far, the disastrous season has produced 10 hurricanesincluding four major hurricanes and five other named storms. Evidence of the devastation is scattered across at least eight states.

More than 300 lives have been lost in the United States. Searches for missing people and efforts to restore utilities continue in the North Carolina mountains. Massive piles of trash line streets in communities in a swath across Florida.

In a recent preliminary reportGallagher Re, a global reinsurance broker, said it “conservatively” estimated the total economic losses from Helene and Milton alone at more than $100 billion.

Billions in damage in the 2024 hurricane season

Moody’s, Gallagher Re and CoreLogic, a real estate data and analysis firm, have released preliminary estimates of insured losses and the financial cost of the storms. Here is an overview:

Beryl – After hitting the Caribbean and setting records for the earliest Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, Beryl made landfall in Matagorda, Texas, on July 8 with 80 mph winds, after which its remnants delivered more than 60 tornadoes and rain in a swath through the Northeast, claimed at least 38 lives, according to The Associated Press.

Insured losses in the United States are estimated at between $2.5 billion and $4.5 billion. Total economic losses, including the Virgin Islands, are estimated at more than $7.5 billion.

Debbie – Becoming the second hurricane to hit the same Florida county in less than a year, Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee on August 5 as a Category 1 hurricane, then made landfall near Bulls Bay, South Carolina, as a tropical storm three days later.

Estimates of insured losses range between $1.5 billion and $3.4 billion, with Gallagher Re putting the total economic losses at an estimated $7 billion.

Francine – After forming in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, Francine quickly intensified into a Category 2 hurricane and made landfall in Terrebonne Parish on the Louisiana coast with 100 mph winds just three days later on September 11.

Insured losses were estimated at between 1.5 and 2 billion dollars, and the economic damages at 15 billion dollars.

Helen – After forming in the northwestern Caribbean, Helene quickly intensified into a major hurricane. It became the third hurricane to hit Florida’s Taylor County in just 13 months when it made landfall with winds of 140 km/h on September 26. By maintaining high wind speeds and helping to push massive amounts of rainfall, it caused damage throughout the Southeast, including catastrophic flooding and mudslides in North Carolina and Tennessee.

To date, 227 deaths have been attributed to the hurricane. Insured losses were estimated at between US$8 billion and US$17.5 billion.

Milton – The small storm rocketed to winds of more than 180 mph in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico before hitting Florida as a Category 3 hurricane just a month after Helene. State officials have reported at least 29 deaths.

The storm caused an estimated $17–36 billion in economic losses. The bulk of the insured losses were $13-22 billion from wind damage, according to CoreLogic, but that does not include all of the 43 tornadoes that hit the southern half of Florida.

As Milton approached landfall, it “interacted with the jet stream over the southeastern United States, causing the winds on the north and northwest sides of the hurricane — which are generally known to be weaker — to be atypically strong,” said Daniel Betten, forensic meteorologist director at CoreLogic As a result, the storm created “two distinct lines of damaging, hurricane-force winds.”

Together, Helene and Milton could cost the National Flood Insurance Program more than $5 billion, Moody’s estimated, while Gallagher Re estimated the total cost of the two storms at more than $100 billion.

Which hurricane season caused the greatest economic damage?

Unfortunately, other recent seasons also stand out, whether it’s 2022, which included Ian, or 2017 with Harvey, Irma and Maria, Waters said.

It can be difficult to compare hurricane seasons over time in terms of costs. Far more people live in hurricane-prone areas than ever before, with more expensive properties. Research studies also indicate that structures are built with stronger building code requirements than in the past.

For decades, Roger Pielke Jr., a professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, has worked with other scientists on studies normalizing hurricane season losses going back to 1900, not only adjusts for inflation, but also calculates wealth and coastal population. Pielke continues to update the numbers every year.

His latest preliminary normalized estimates for 2024, provided by Pielke on Wednesday, and previous studies show that the 1926 season, with the Great Miami Hurricane, would be considered the costliest in history at about $308 billion. The hurricane caused catastrophic damage in Miami and along the Gulf Coast.

The infamous 2005 hurricane season is the second costliest ever on the normalized list, with total damage estimated at $215 billion after seven hurricanes made landfall in the United States, including Katrina. Normalized losses for the 1900 season, which included the Galveston hurricane, put it third at $176 billion.

With Pielke’s latest preliminary estimates adjusted only for inflation in 2024 dollars, the 2005, 2017 and 2022 hurricane seasons rank 1, 2 and 3 at $173 billion, $127 billion and $118 billion, respectively.

Growing concerns

Increasing inland rainfall such as the 31.33 inches seen ahead of and during Helene in Busick, North Carolina, and the associated increase in flood-related deaths has become a growing concern for residents, the National Hurricane Center and the insurance industry.

The flood losses this summer, like those seen in the North Carolina mountains and with the storm surge on the Florida coast, underscore a key concern — the gap between those who have flood insurance and those who don’t, Waters said. Activity over the past 5-7 years “highlights the need for this gap to be closed.”

Improving the ability to estimate risks

For agents and insurers trying to write insurance, one of the challenges is understanding the evolving landscape, Waters said.

Part of that is learning to use the disaster models being developed to try to quantify risk in the short term and look to the future, including how a warming world will affect particular hazards, he said. “Climate change is certainly an area of ​​increasing interest.”

The Gallagher Re report points out that 2024 remains on track to be the warmest year on record. It said: “Fingerprints of climate change are becoming increasingly evident on individual events.”