Here’s who is leading in the most important election campaigns in 2024

Harris has a 49%-48% lead among voters across all seven battlegrounds, according to a new HarrisX/Forbes poll released Thursday, a statistical tie — but 14% of swing state voters are still weighing their options, meaning , that there is plenty of room for the race to switch.

North Carolina: Harris leads 48%-47% in one CNN/SSRS survey released Thursday (margin of error 4.5 points), an outlier among several other polls this week showing Trump ahead, including a Fox News survey showing him up 49%-47% (or 50%-49% without third parties), while leading 50%-48% in surveys released in the last week of Cooperative selection survey, Marist and Emerson College. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Trump with an advantage of 1.2 points.

Georgia: Trump holds a 48%-47% lead on Thursday CNN/SSRS poll (margin of error 4.7), and he is up more significantly 51%-46% in the CES poll (2,663 respondents) and 49.9%-48.4% in last week’s Bloomberg pollalthough they are tied at 49% in a Marist vote (margin of error 3.9) and a Washington Post-Schar vote (margin of error 4.5) found Harris ahead 51%-47%. Trump leads by 1.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

Pennsylvania: It couldn’t get any closer – the candidates are tied at 48% Fox News and CNN/SSRS polls released on Wednesday and it is 49%-49% in a CBS/YouGov polland while Trump is up 47%-46% in one Quinnipiac poll and 50%-49% if Fox News eliminates third parties, Harris has a 49%-48% lead in a large Cooperative selection survey survey (3,685 respondents). Monmouth found Trump is up 47%-46% among all registered voters, but Harris leads 48%-47% among people who vote in most elections. Overall, Trump leads Harris by 0.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

Michigan: Trump has a rare lead in one Washington Post poll released Thursday showing him up 47%-45%, though three other surveys this week show Harris with an advantage, including Fox News poll that showed her up 48%-46% (though tied at 49% without third parties), 51%-46% in the CES poll (2,336 respondents) and 48%-43% in CNN/SSRS poll– while Trump leads 49%-48% in one Emerson study published Tuesday (margin of error 3 points). Harris is up 1.1 points in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

Wisconsin: Harris is up 50%-47% over Trump in the CES poll (1,542 respondents), 51%-45% in CNN/SSRS poll and 50%-49% in one Marquette votewhile Trump is up 49% to 48% in an Emerson map out and the two candidates are tied at 48% in a Quinnipiac vote. Harris is up 0.7 points in FiveThirtyEights average.

Nevada: Harris leads Trump 51%-47% in CES map out (933 respondents), while Trump is ahead 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS map out released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points), and Harris is up 48.8%-48.3% in a Bloomberg poll out October 23 (margin of error 5). Harris is up 0.1 points in FiveThirtyEights poll average.

Arizona: Trump is up 51%-47% in the CES poll (2,066 respondents), and he leads 50%-49% in a Marist vote released Oct. 24 (margin of error 3.7) and 49%-46% in a Washington Post-Schar School poll (margin of error 5), while Harris leads 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS poll this week (margin) of error 4.4). Trump is up 2.2 points in FiveThirtyEights poll average.