Texans-Jets Betting Preview (Odds, Lines, Best Bets)

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Expected reading time: 4 minutes

Game overview

Week 9 kicks off with a matchup between a pair of teams navigating difficult waters heading into the back half of the year.

The New York Jets enter another primetime matchup looking for answers in the midst of a five-game skid straight up and toward the spread. Primetime games have been particularly challenging for this team, which has covered just one of its four games in the spotlight, with their lone win at home against the Patriots in Week 3.

Offensive woes have long been on the rise in New York, with their goals looking especially bad outside of the losing streak. Since Week 4, the Jets rank in the bottom third of the NFL in overall offensive team grade (69.2) and expected points added per game.

Slow starts have plagued the team, which claims some of the league’s worst offensive metrics in the first quarter, including EPA per plays (31st), yards per games (28th), turnover (tied for last) and successful play rate (28th) . And despite his overall solid character profile, quarterback Aaron Rodgers shares responsibility for those issues, ranking last among qualified passers in first-quarter passing grade (46.5).

Conversely, the Houston Texans turned around the spread in October, posting a 3-1 record after dropping every spread in September. Given the Texans’ current trials, they’ve also managed to secure a sub in the game total in all but two matchups this season.

Injuries have hit Houston’s offense hard recently, with Nico Collins has been out of service since week 5 and Stephen Diggs goes down for the year last week after suffering a torn ACL. That leaves the offense pinned down in the receiving game as the focus shifts Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz to bear the burden.

Fortunately, the Texans’ defense has taken pressure off the offense and put games within reach each week behind a solid pass rush. Over the past three games, Houston’s pass rush has racked up the second-most pressures (67) and recorded the third-highest knockdown rate (19.5%) in the NFL.

RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans: Over 20.5 Carries (-108) — 1.9% Edge

Since Nico Collins went down in Week 5, Houston’s offense has posted a top-10 run-play percentage (42.8%). The injuries to the receiving corps continue to worsen, so look for the offense to lean even more on the run game.

Enter Joe Mixon, who has been among the most effective backs in the league. Despite going down early in Week 2 and missing the subsequent three games, Mixon has still managed to surpass 100 yards on the ground in every game he’s finished. Part of that production stems from his significant usage marks, as he had amassed 25 or more carries in three of his four completed outings.

Attacking the Jets’ defense on the ground remains a strong approach for opposing offenses, with New York having the sixth-highest rate of run plays (46.0%). In their eight matchups this season, they have faced 23 or more rushing attempts from backs in all but one game.

Without much of anyone else in the Texans’ backfield to vulture carry from Mixon, this is a strong bet.