India vs New Zealand 2024/25, IND vs NZ 3rd Test Match Preview

On By Littum

Big picture: Pride (for India) and WTC points at stake

A 2-0 series going into the final Test is what most followers of the game would have predicted when this three-match India vs New Zealand series began 15 days ago. But hardly anyone would have predicted that “2” would not be against India’s name.

It has taken a string of firsts for New Zealand to find themselves in the position they are in. And now, heading to Mumbai with the series in the bag, they have the chance to do the unthinkable – inflict a series sweep over India in India. Only once have India been swept in a series of more than one Test at home – against South Africa in 1999-2000 – and never in a series of more than two Tests. Can India save itself the blush?

While there is pride at stake for the home team, there are also crucial WTC points at stake for both sides. India still lead the WTC points table but that lead has been cut big with these two defeats. Another loss here and they will have a lot of catching up to do in Australia.

For New Zealand, reaching the WTC finals seemed a long shot when this series started, but these two wins have brought them back into contention. A win in Mumbai and then in the three-match series at home against England will keep them in the mix for another WTC final.

It has taken a lot of grit, determination and long spells of brilliant cricket for New Zealand to be able to dictate terms. They cleaned up India for 46 in Bengaluru and then bowled it out in the second innings as Rishabh Pant and Sarfaraz Khan hit them. The naysayers would say that the conditions in Bengaluru were more suitable for New Zealand than for India. So they went to Pune and beat India in conditions that were completely different.

Rarely has an overseas spinner overtaken his Indian counterparts in India. But Mitchell Santner understood the task from the start and India had no answer to his deception and dip. They also have Ajaz Patel on the scene for his epic ten wicket haul from 2021.

For India, it is more about how to bounce back from these shock defeats and get a win under their belt ahead of the Australia tour. On paper, this is a dead rubber. In reality, it is anything but.

Form guide

India LLWWW (last five tests, most recent first)
New Zealand WWLLLL

In the spotlight – Virat Kohli and Mitchell Santner

Virat Kohli has a problem, it’s called spin, and it has grown in the last few years, especially in Asia. Since the start of 2022, Kohli has played 19 Tests, scoring four fifties and two centuries. of them 12 have been in Asiawhere he has only had one fifty and one hundred. What stands out in them is his fallibility against spin.

In 19 innings in Asia since January 2022, he has fallen to spin 16 times, at an average of 29.31. The corresponding figure in terms of pace is three sacks, while averaging 47.00. For someone who has the old streak towards spinners, he has often been dismissed by playing from the crease. He has fallen to spin three out of the four innings in this series, to Glenn Phillips in Bengaluru and twice to Santner in Pune. On a Mumbai surface that is bound to turn, Kohli may have to do a little extra to get his spin numbers right.

It will be Mitchell Santner who will again be tasked with not letting Kohli and the others get away. For someone whose Instagram bio reads “part-time New Zealand cricketer, full-time golfer”, it was an incredible effort to come in and pick up 13 wickets in Pune, the same number he had managed in the five tests he had played before stretching to June 2021. He had tweaked his side in Pune but seems to have recovered well. He batted and bowled in the nets two days before the Mumbai Test and will be hoping to make a similar impact as he did in Pune.

Team news: Bumrah must be rested? What about Southee?

Although the series is already lost, there are chances that India may give Jasprit Bumrah a rest before the five-match series against Australia starting next month. As practice was mandatory, everyone did everything they could at the nets the day before the Test, except Bumrah, who did not bowl. Gautam Gambhir said that Bumrah is fit and available. But with a long trip ahead, India may look to give their premiership a quick break, as they did earlier this year against England in Ranchi. Will they replace him with a spinner in Kuldeep Yadav or a fast bowler in Mohammed Siraj is yet to be seen. The batting unit should remain unchanged with Sarfaraz Khan holding his place.

India (probable XI): 1 Yashasvi Jaiswal, 2 Rohit Sharma (capt), 3 Shubman Gill, 4 Virat Kohli, 5 Rishabh Pant (wk), 6 Sarfaraz Khan, 7 Ravindra Jadeja, 8 R Ashwin, 9 Washington Sundar, 10 Jasprit Bumrah /Kuldeep Yadav/Mohammed Siraj, 11 Akash Deep

Matt Henry looks set to return to the New Zealand XI after missing the Pune Test due to a glute niggle. He bowled at full strength two days before the Test and had a fitness test on Thursday. Henry was the pick of the bowlers in Bengaluru and is likely to replace Tim Southee. There were more indications from training on the eve of the match, with Santner playing the quicks at third slip instead of Southee, who often mans that position. The rest of the XI is likely to be unchanged.

New Zealand (probable XI): 1 Tom Latham (capt), 2 Devon Conway, 3 Will Young, 4 Rachin Ravindra, 5 Daryl Mitchell, 6 Tom Blundell (wk), 7 Glenn Phillips, 8 Mitchell Santner, 9 Matt Henry, 10 Ajaz Patel , 11 William O’Rourke

Stand and conditions

The red soil surface in Mumbai is dry and will turn early. It is expected to crumble as the Test goes on, but there should be a good bounce for fast bowlers and spinners. It is expected to be humid in Mumbai with temperatures likely to be around the low to mid 30s on the Celsius scale.

Statistics and trivia

Quotes

“I think it looks a really good wicket. Obviously it’s really difficult for anyone to judge how the wicket is going to behave unless the match starts on it and both teams have batted on it. But I feel it looks like a decent wicket and I’m sure once the guys come in they can actually make the most of it.”
India’s head coach Gautam Gambhir on the Wankhede surface

“I think so, yes. We’ll obviously look at the wicket, but I think if you look at previous tosses, I think most teams have batted first.”
Captain Tom Latham is clear about what he will do if New Zealand win the toss on Friday

Ashish Pant is a sub-editor with ESPNcricinfo